ryanbrennan's blog

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market averages have broken down and broken support (except for the Dow). This is the first time that can be said since this past March. We are looking at a strong possibility of a retest of the 2400 level. If that should fail, it is possible that a much more serious bearish market could develop. But as long as the 2400 support level holds, the $SPX chart will remain bullish.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Certainly the $SPX chart is still bullish at this time, but once again $SPX is trapped in one of those tight ranges -- this time between 2460 and 2480. That range has essentially contained the action for the last twelve trading days. In the last nine months, since the election, those tight ranges have generally been resolved by an upside breakout. But until we have verification of that, it is wise to be prepared for a correction.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The $SPX chart is unabashedly bullish. It continues to make new highs, remaining above the trailing moving averages and holding above support. Thus the intermediate-term outlook is still bullish, per the $SPX chart (our most important indicator).

Equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish (Figures 2 and 3). The standard ratio has developed a little "wiggle" over the past few days, but at this point the computer analysis programs are still grading this chart as being on a buy signal.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Bulls have been totally dominant again, over the past week (and really since last November). The gap upside breakout over the minor downtrend line (blue line in Figure 1), on July 12th, was once again the beginning of a strong upward move. This was similar to the previous upside breakout gap over a downtrend line, in late April. The $SPX chart is thus strongly bullish and will remain that way until support at 2400 is broken.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

We wrote about “years ending in 7” in the February 3, 2017, issue.  The data in Figure 5 is the same graph that was published at that time.  It includes data for the Dow Jones 30 Industrials, going back to its inception in 1897.  This  graph merely shows the average data points for all of those years.  

By Lawrence G. McMillan

First and foremost, the most bullish of our indicators is the $SPX chart itself (although some of our other indicators seem to be grudgingly improving as well). The 2400 area has been rock-solid support and until that is broken the $SPX chart will remain bullish.

Equity-only put-call ratios are technically on sell signals, according to the computer analysis programs. However, the weighted ratio (Figure 3) has curled over, so its sell signal is weakening.