By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — Despite the fact that the news media and fundamentalists can’t seem to find any reason to like this market, it refuses to sell off. In fact, as we head into the last holiday of summer, the market is poised near four-year highs.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
For most of the last two weeks, the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) plowed ahead, finally making new post-2008 highs this past Tuesday. Our intermediate-term indicators have been bullish for over two months now, so these new highs were in line with those indicators. However, as soon as the new highs were made, $SPX began to retreat, and an overbought correction now appears to be underway.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
This market is becoming the ultimate in defying bearish opinion. Since June 1st, $SPX has advanced almost exactly 150 points and is nearly back to the yearly highs -- and therefore at a post-2008 high. Yet, bearish opinion is still rather rampant.
$SPX remains within the rising trading channel that extends back to early June (see Figure 1). It is near the top of the channel, so in that sense, it is "overbought."
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on buy signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market, as measured by the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index continues to rise (albeit very slowly of late). Even though the rise is slow, the fact that there has not been a correction in some time has led to some overbought conditions. SPX has not had a significant down day since Aug. 2. Thus, the odds of an overbought-induced short-term correction have increased.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
(Barron's) - This bull market is rather unpopular—and that's good.
Since the rally began in early June, most investors and traders have doubted the advance because they were so afraid of Europe's debt crisis, U.S. economic problems, and even the U.S. presidential election.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Stocks have rallied to the top of the bullish $SPX channel (see chart, Figure 1). The top of the channel is at about 1410 currently, and the yearly highs are at 1420. So, that area is likely to provide some resistance for now.
Meanwhile, equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish.
Market breadth indicators are on buy signals, having reversed negative signals from the previous week.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Bears are having trouble understanding why the stock market continues to rise, but in reality it’s due in part to the fact that there are still too many bears. Many of the people who would be sellers have already sold and are now sitting back waiting for the market to go down. That strategy rarely works.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Almost like clockwork, the pendulum of this market swings back and forth within the bullish trading range that $SPX occupies. As long as $SPX stays within this range, the overall picture is bullish.
However, this time around, we are starting to see some more deterioration in some other technical indicators. In particular, the equity-only put-call ratios are beginning to seriously weaken. Moreover breadth indicators are on sell signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — Since the broad stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, bottomed in early June, the ensuing rise has been met with doubt, skepticism, and even outright derision (dare we say “hate?”) in some cases.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
This week's selling drove $SPX down to the lower end of its bullish trading channel (see Figure 1). The selling managed to dissipate right near the lower channel, and so the bullish pattern is maintained.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained bullish throughout this recent decline, just as they have generally remained bullish since generating intermediate-term buy signals right near the June stock market lows.
Market breadth wavered early in the week, but are back on buy signals now.
