By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market had just about everything going for it in technical terms this week, but then the fundamentalists delivered a nasty blow today (Thursday, June 21st). Technically $SPX is just below the support level of 1330-1340.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, despite Thursday's large decline.
Market breadth was very poor on Thursday. As a result, both breadth oscillators registered sell signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market finally responded to a broad set of positive technical indicators and has broken out to the upside. The individual pieces began to fall into place last week, with the last piece (VIX closing below 21) occurring this past Monday. This should pave the way for a strong intermediate-term rally.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — The stock market has an extremely impressive set of buy signals going for it. If the bulls can’t capitalize on this, it’s not clear if they ever will.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
he technical picture continues to improve -- especially in the area of put-call ratios. However, $VIX is still elevated and $SPX is still trapped in a trading range. We need to see improvement in those areas before intermediate-term buy signals can emerge. $SPX is trapped in a trading range, with resistance at 1330-1340 and support at 1305.
Equity-only put-call ratios have now confirmed their buy signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market has virtually alternated strong up and down days of late, without much net change. This has created a trading range, within which we’ve seen a good deal of improvement from several of our technical indicators. Even so, the market must confirm these indicators’ buy signals with an upside breakout. Failure to do so would essentially negate those signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
After some relatively heavy, but orderly, selling in the past few weeks, oversold conditions finally reached levels that spawned a sharp oversold rally. But oversold rallies, while often unexpectedly strong, are generally short-lived affairs. There is certainly a good chance that this is the case again this time.
$SPX was able to rally to its declining 20-day moving average. There is further resistance at 1340.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
After some relatively heavy, but orderly, selling in the past few weeks, oversold conditions finally reached levels that spawned today’s sharp oversold rally. But oversold rallies, while often unexpectedly strong, are generally short-lived affairs.
Is that going to be the case again this time, or is the bottom in place? It’s too early to answer that question, but we’ll lay out the criteria as we see them.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Despite a rather severe oversold condition, there have been no actual confirmed buy signals issued yet. This oversold condition has persisted for the past couple of weeks, spurring modest rallies, but all that seems to have done is to ease the oversold condition a bit and make way for the next wave of selling, such as we saw today.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
As often happens on the first day of trading after a three-day weekend, the market is buffeted by cross-current, so there are several moves. Initially, the market was strong yesterday, topping out almost exactly at $SPX 1335. Then selling drove the index down about 16 points, before a late rally took it back to near the highs. Even though intraday volatility increased, actual (realized) volatility has not. Tonight, S&P futures were down about 14 points after more negative news out of Europe.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The massive oversold condition that existed at the end of last week has spurred a rally this week. when the market is as oversold as it got last week, it usually rallies back slightly beyond its 20-day moving average. That moving average is currently at 1350.
The equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals.
Breadth has been slightly positive this week, but the breadth indicators continue to remain on sell signals and are still in oversold territory.
