By Lawrence G. MCMillan
It is almost unfathomable to think that, exactly a mere two weeks ago, $SPX was at 1345 and there were thoughts that an upside breakout was possible. Now, two weeks later, in a move that can only be described as panic, $SPX is at 1200 with no floor in sight. Oversold conditions have ballooned to near-historic levels in some cases, but as the last few trading days have shown, "oversold" does not mean "buy."
Theoretically, there is $SPX chart support in the 1180-1200 area from last November.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The last two weeks seem like they took two months. It’s hard to believe, but two weeks ago, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was near the high end of its range, with positive technical indicators, and an upside breakout seemed a possibility.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — Heading into Tuesday, I didn’t think the market could act any worse, but it did. It’s almost impossible to fathom that the market was rising with improving technicals eight trading sessions ago.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Suddenly, the stock market started to develop "religion" about the U.S. debt situation, and sold off sharply this week.
In one sense, this is like any other "event" -- an FDA hearing or a potentially volatile earnings report: the underlying has trouble moving decisively in either direction until the event has passed.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Until today, the market didn’t seem to be reacting too badly to the standoff taking place in Washington, regarding the raising of the debt ceiling and the possible downgrading of U.S. government debt.
Are you worried that the wrangling over the debt ceiling might become a crisis for the stock market? A number of analysts are predicting dire results if the ceiling is not passed by the August 2nd deadline. In fact, some say that even now it's too late to keep the U.S. credit rating at AAA. I think the stock market as a whole is smart enough to discount these possibilities, and therefore such worries are probably overblown since the market is rallying, not plunging.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Thursday's breakout upside move in the stock market has solidified the indicators together into a bullish posture. The chart of $SPX held onto a bullish picture even though the selling in the past two weeks was heavy at times. The 20-day moving average has been rising all along, and the index never closed meaningfully below that average
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained bullish, as they have continued to decline from their high peaks of a month ago.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market had a powerful showing Tuesday with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallying 1.6% for the day. Market indicators suggest a potential 100-point rise in the index over the next few months.
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By Lawrence G. McMillan
July $VIX settlement took place this morning. The official settlement price was 19.10, just slightly below last night's $VIX close of 19.21. All outstanding June futures and options contracts will settle at that price. For example, if you own a July 20 put and didn't sell it prior to today, it would settle for 0.90 ($90 per contract), since it is 90 cents in the money (20 minus 19.10).
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market is finally staging a strong rally. Is it just a “Turnaround Tuesday” thing, or have the bears fumbled the ball (they weren’t moving it very well anyway)? I’m sure there’s plenty of room for debate regarding either of those stances, and both are probably true to some extent.
Today’s move solidifies support on $SPX at 1295-1300, and that remains an important area. On the upside, the important level to overcome would be the 1330 level.
