fbpx Weekly Commentary 7/29/2011 | Option Strategist

Weekly Commentary 7/29/2011

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Suddenly, the stock market started to develop "religion" about the U.S. debt situation, and sold off sharply this week.      

In one sense, this is like any other "event" -- an FDA hearing or a potentially volatile earnings report: the underlying has trouble moving decisively in either direction until the event has passed.      

The chart of $SPX is no longer bullish; it has turned neutral. There is support in the 1295-1300 area (today's lows and mid-July lows). Below that, there is a large support area down to the June lows at 1260.      

Equity-only put-call ratios are turning bearish (see Figures 2 & 3). They have finally been affected by this week's decline.  The standard ratio is a confirmed sell, as is QQQ weighted. The weighted equity- only is not yet a confirmed sell signal.      

At the current time, the breadth indicators are on sell signals and are extremely oversold.      

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have finally taken notice that a potentially volatile event lies on the near-term horizon. There are higher highs and higher lows on the $VIX chart, which means that it's in an uptrend.  That is bearish for stocks.      

In summary, the worries over the debt ceiling have aborted many of the buy signals, but oversold conditions are appearing already. I would not rush to buy on a mere oversold condition, though. 

Click here to view this week's charts

Sign up for The Option Strategist Weekly Updater to receive this market commentary delivered to your inbox each Friday for free.

Share this

Option Strategist
Blog Search

Recent Blog Posts

Trading or investing whether on margin or otherwise carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all persons. Leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade or invest you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and ability to tolerate risk. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more than your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and investing, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Visit the Disclosure & Policies page for full website disclosures.