By Lawrence G. McMillan
Was the two-day selloff on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week enough to refuel the bulls? It may have been.
$SPX closed at a new high for this post-October rally, although it has not yet exceeded the 2011 high at 1370. With today's rally there is clearly strong support at 1340. which is at 1290.
Equity-only put-call ratios are technically on buy signals. However, they edged higher over the last two days.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market has generally persisted in rising, albeit at a slower and slower pace, but it has taken on the appearance of a very tired entity. Therefore, we expect that the price correction of which we have been speaking for the last couple of weeks is at hand.
Perhaps it was precipitated by the parabolic move in Apple AAPL -0.94% that ran out of steam today, or perhaps it is once again worried about the Greek debit crisis. In my book, the former is more worrisome to the market than the latter.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market refuses to back off. This is making TV commentators gleeful, but experienced traders are finding such one-sided action to be a bit dangerous.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — As much as I like the intermediate-term picture, where nearly all of our indicators remain bullish, the overbought condition that has been created is reaching the stage where – if it’s not alleviated soon – it could result in a gut-wrenching drop that can wreak havoc on portfolios and, more importantly, on psyches.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market continues to repeat itself with great frequency these days. Once again, early selling was reversed, and now the market is trading near its highs for the days. Breadth is only slightly positive (due to the weak opening), but even so the breadth oscillators are in deeply overbought territory. $VIX rose initially, but is now down slightly on the day as well.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market continues to rise, mostly in a very slow-motion fashion. Meanwhile, overbought conditions are building. $SPX has bumped up against the 1330 level for three days in six, without being able to break through. I would not expect any correction to violate that bullish trend line, but if it should happen, it would be a major negative factor.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain split. The standard ratio remains on the sell signal that was generated last week. But the weighted ratio remains on a buy signal.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, has had an impressive year so far. A strong month of January wound up with the typical seasonal buy programs which have spilled over into February (as they often do).
But the overbought conditions have continued to grow, without being properly alleviated. Thus, the odds of a short-term correction are high, especially as January disappears in the rear view mirror.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — The bulls have been completely in charge. While there may be some short-term victories ahead for the bears, it appears the bulls are not finished yet.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
There have only been four down days in January, and as a result the market is very overbought. The intermediate-term indicators are mostly still positive at this time, although there is one glaring exception -- a new sell signal (just registered today) from the standard equity-only put-call ratio.
Other intermediate-term indicators remain positive, though. For example, $SPX is still clearly in an uptrend. However, if the 1260 level were breached, that would be much more bearish.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
An indicator that doesn’t get a lot of attention is how many stocks are above or below their moving averages. In this article, we’re going to take a look at that indicator, using several different moving averages. Clearly, such an indicator is just another way of discerning whether the market is overbought or oversold (or is not). Does this give a better or complementary picture to the indicators that we already use for these purposes, which largely are market breadth and put-call ratios?
