By Lawrence G. McMillan
Technical indicators have turned more bullish in the past week, so the current rally probably has more room to run. The chart of $SPX has taken on a slightly more bullish tone. This week $SPX overcame resistance at 1200-1210, although it has now fallen back below that level.
There is also resistance at 1230 -- the intraday high of both the last two trading days.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — After Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech last Friday, the market sold off rather sharply. But once that selling got out of the way, a strong bullish move took place, carrying the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher by more than 70 points in just over one full trading day.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has established 1120 as a support area, but it remains negative in that it is trending downward.
Equity-only put-call ratios are still rising on their charts, meaning they are still on sell signals. However, the heights they have reached means that these indicators are extremely oversold.
Market breadth has been very one-sided, as massive numbers of traders are either bullish or bearish at the same time, it seems. Breadth conditions are currently neutral.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The $SPX chart is perhaps the most negative technical indicator of all. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows persists. How far can this next down leg carry? 1100 is the intraday low from last week; 1077 is the overnight low for the futures; and some technical targets suggest a decline to the 1040-1060 area, which was support from the summer of 2010.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The panic of a week ago has subsided, but the market remains nervous and volatile — not as volatile as last week, but far more volatile than it has been in the past year or so. The oversold conditions, massive as they were, have spurred a rally that is still in progress. However, upside progress has stalled, and the bulls and the bears are locked in combat at or near current levels.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market opened stronger, after some economic data was released, and that rally lasted for less than a half hour. Since then, its been a slow decline, but a large one, and the support at 1180 is in danger of giving way. This would not be good. Specifically, a close below 1178 would spell then official end of this short-term oversold rally that has been underway for the last few days. Thus, the $SPX chart remains in a negative downtrend.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
This decline has been one of the swiftest on record, coming from a period of relative calm and even somewhat positive technical indicators. The selling that has taken place in the last two weeks can only be described as panic selling, for the most part.
$SPX declined sharply below its 20-day moving average (see feature article), and as such is quite oversold.
So far, there is support on $SPX at 1100 to 1120 -- the daily lows of this week.
By Lawrence G. MCMillan
It is almost unfathomable to think that, exactly a mere two weeks ago, $SPX was at 1345 and there were thoughts that an upside breakout was possible. Now, two weeks later, in a move that can only be described as panic, $SPX is at 1200 with no floor in sight. Oversold conditions have ballooned to near-historic levels in some cases, but as the last few trading days have shown, "oversold" does not mean "buy."
Theoretically, there is $SPX chart support in the 1180-1200 area from last November.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Suddenly, the stock market started to develop "religion" about the U.S. debt situation, and sold off sharply this week.
In one sense, this is like any other "event" -- an FDA hearing or a potentially volatile earnings report: the underlying has trouble moving decisively in either direction until the event has passed.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Thursday's breakout upside move in the stock market has solidified the indicators together into a bullish posture. The chart of $SPX held onto a bullish picture even though the selling in the past two weeks was heavy at times. The 20-day moving average has been rising all along, and the index never closed meaningfully below that average
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained bullish, as they have continued to decline from their high peaks of a month ago.
