Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/15/2020

By Lawrence G. McMillan

A double top is now evident on the $SPX chart in the 2950 area. So for now that is strong resistance. The question is whether we're in a trading range or a stronger downturn is in store.

There are three important support levels: 2800, 2720, AND 2650. I feel that sellers would become more aggressive as each of these were violated on a closing basis. So far, none have been.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. The standard ratio has fallen to extremely low, overly optimistic, overbought levels, but it has not yet rolled over to a sell signal.

Market breadth has volleyed back and forth like a tennis ball, moving from sell signal to buy signal with (too much) ease. In fact, currently the two oscillators have split signals, with the "stocks only" on a sell, and the NYSE-based oscillator on a buy.

Volatility continues to be a very interesting aspect of this market. This past week, $VIX spiked up again, generating another short-term buy signal.

From an intermediate-term perspective, though, the $VIX chart is still negative because $VIX continues to close above its 200-day moving average.

For that and other reasons, we maintain a "core" bearish position, but we will trade short-term buy signals around it.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.