Weekly Commentary 3/30/2012

By Lawrence G. McMillan

After a rousing start to the week, with $SPX breaking out to new post- 2008 highs, some selling has set in. To date, the selling has been modest and falls into the category of a "garden variety" correction. However, if support at 1385-1390 on $SPX fails, that would be bearish.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain neutral to slightly bullish. Breadth has been the "weak sister" of indicators for some time. The breadth indicators are currently on sell signals -- the sixth such.

Of course, volatility is of major concern and interest. $VIX has now risen above 17 a couple of times this week. In my opinion, $VIX is bullish for stocks as long as it keeps closing below 17.

In summary, the bulls are still in charge and will continue to be as long as support holds. However, if the 1385-1390 support gives way, it could lead to an intermediate-term sell signal -- something we haven't seen since last November.

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