Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/3/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The Fed announced that they weren't planning on cutting rates at this time. That was a "shock" to the media, but probably not so much to traders. In any case, $SPX sold off after that, causing some sell signals to be generated.

Countering that negativity, though, is the fact that the $SPX chart is still positive (Figure 1). Even though it pulled back a little, it hasn't even closed below its still-rising 20-day moving average. Thus the $SPX chart itself remains bullish, with support at 2910 and various levels below that.

Equity-only put-call ratios are beginning to roll over. From Figures 2 and 3, one can see that the ratios have curled upward from very low levels. Thus, they are now on sell signals.

Market breadth has only been modestly positive for nearly a month. Then, the selling on April 30th rolled them over to sell signals, where they remain today.

Volatility remains bullish for stocks, in that it just can't get anything going on the upside. As long as $VIX remains below 17, there isn't going to be a major correction in stocks. There could be a correction, yes, but not a major one.

Overall, the $SPX chart remains bullish, but we are seeing some sell signals. As we've noted many times in the past, in situations such as this, one must still rely heavily on the $SPX chart. So, we remain bullish until support is broken on the $SPX chart.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.