Weekly Commentary 10/14/2011

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The pace of the recent rally was such that the market is now short-term overbought. For all the movement, $SPX is still within the confines of a wide, volatile trading range -- which now extends from 1070 to 1230. A breakout above 1230 would be bullish, although there is more resistance at 1260.      

Equity-only put-call ratios aren't as clear as they sometimes are. The weighted ratio has moved back to a buy signal, but the standard ratio really hasn't.      

Market breadth continues to swing wildly back and forth with the market movements.  In the last rally, breadth has expanded, and so both breadth indicators are overbought (and are on buy signals).      

Volatility indices have moved quite a bit lower in the last week. As such, they are on short-term spike peak buy signals. However, until proven differently, excursions down to the 30 level have been good selling opportunities in the last two months.      

In summary, while all the indicators are not bullish, the bulls seem to have the upper hand for now.  However, an $SPX close below 1170 and a $VIX close above 33 would change the picture to negative.

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