By Lawrence G. McMillan
From a simple point of view, this market has once again bounced off of the still-rising 200-day moving average several times. If it were to close below there,then that would be very bearish, for a new leg of the downtrend would be in place. Until then, though, there is the possibility that the support in the 2580 area will hold, and further progress can be made on the upside.
Even so, the chart of $SPX will remain negative until the gap at 2750 is filled. That is a long ways from here and that gap may not be filled for quite some time.
The equity-only put-call ratios are split at this time. The standard ratio has curled over and begun to slightly decline. The computer analysis programs designate this as a buy signal. The weighted ratio, however, continues to rise and thus remains on a sell signal.
Market breadth has been quite strong in the last three days, but with Friday's action, both breadth oscillators will be on sell signals once again. This is the shortest-term of our indicators and, as such, has been a pretty good indicator in this fast-moving market.
Volatility movements have been rather subdued, as $VIX does not want to follow higher at this time. Studies of past bear markets show similar behavior: after an initial spurt higher by $VIX (which we most recently saw in early February), $VIX remains subdued UNTIL the market makes new lows; then it explodes.
The short-term indicators are positive, and there is a potential "W" formation on the chart. However, even if $SPX can avoid falling to new lows, it needs to fill the gap at 2750. Failing that, the intermediate-term trend remains downward.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.
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