Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/20/17

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad stock market, as measured by $SPX, has traded in a very narrow range since early December (with one very brief excursion below the range in late December). That range is essentially 2250 to 2280, an amazingly small range for a 5-week period of time. As a result, realized volatility has declined to very low levels.

Looking at the more traditional support levels, the first is at 2233 (the late-December lows), with support at 2210 and 2190 below that. As long as $SPX remains above that 2233 support level, we cannot turn bearish, despite what the other indicators might be saying.

Equity-only put-call ratios are telling a different story, as they are both on sell signals. Moreover, they have moved strongly higher this week, as there has been relatively heavy put buying even though $SPX hasn't declined much.

Market breadth hasn't been strong lately, and the "stocks only" breadth oscillator has been on a sell signal for most of the past week. Yesterday, the NYSE-based breadth oscillator joined in, registering a sell signal of its own at the close of trading.

Volatility indices have continued to remain very low. As long as $VIX remains below 15, stocks can continue to rise.

In summary, there has been enough deterioration that the put-call ratios and breadth oscillators are now on sell signals. We've seen this story before, though, and unless these sell signals are accompanied by a breakdown in $SPX and a breakout in $VIX, they won't mean much.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.