By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market has split into two parts recently. Most of the major averages are moving sideways, but staying within easy range of new all-time highs. The NASDAQ Composite, however, and its smaller companion the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX) have been making new all-time highs frequently. This should be a good thing.
The $SPX chart remains bullish in that its trend lines are sloping upwards and support has held. There is support at 2233, and then at 2210 and 2190 below that.
A bearish development has taken place in the equity-only put- call ratios, as both have rolled over to confirmed sell signals. Market breadth continues to bounce back and forth.
and now there are new sell signals in both breadth oscillators. Volatility has remained in the bulls' camp all along. This week, there were a couple of days when $SPX sold off rather sharply intraday, but $VIX hardly budged at all. The key level on $VIX is the 15 level (or just below it), where $VIX peaked in both early and late December. As long as $VIX remains below that level, stocks can rise without a problem.
In summary, it is a bit worrisome that $SPX can't seem to advance and that breadth and put-call ratios have generated sell signals. However, until $SPX breaks support (at 2233) and $VIX breaks out to the upside (above 15), the bulls will remain in control.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.
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