Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/2/16

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX has struggled this week, but it remains above the rising 20-day moving average, so the $SPX chart is still bullish. There is support at 2180, but the more important support is at 2170. As long as $SPX is above that level, the chart will be bullish.

The put-call ratios are generally bullish at this time. The weighted equity-only put-call ratio (Figure 3), gave a buy signal just about the time of the election, and it has remained on that buy signal ever since. The standard ratio (Figure 2), however, ran into some problems along the way, but it is now back on a buy signal as well.

Market breadth is the first indicator to weaken and has generated sell signals. Those sell signals occurred over the past two days, but by themselves would NOT be enough to act on.

Volatility has remained low, in general, and that is bullish for stocks. As long as $VIX doesn't develop an uptrend, one can be certain that stocks are still able to rise.

Finally, it should be noted that December is normally a strong month. Even last year, when the highs of December were made on the first of the month, there was a rally leading into Christmas. Often times, it is the latter part of December that is the strongest. That could easily be the case again this year.

In summary, the market had advanced swiftly and is now working off some of that "excess." At this point, they are still bullish for the most part (except for breadth). But a violation of the 2170 level by $SPX would change that.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.