By Lawrence G. McMillan
Buy signals have abounded in the past week. In Figure 1, I have included Tuesday's night's action (vertical red line), as the market first plunged when it became a distinct possibility that Donald Trump would win the election. This was a very "Brexit-like" response to a surprise vote.
I used to think "weatherman" was the main occupation where you could be wrong constantly and still keep your job. Now I'm going to add "pollster" to that list.
Equity-only put-call ratios had been on sell signals for a few weeks. But now things are beginning to change and as of last night, the standard ratio has rolled over to a buy signal. The weighted ratio has curled over as well, but it is not yet rated as a buy.
Market breadth was very negative during the pre-election selloff, and the breadth oscillators dipped deeply into oversold territory. However, things have improved this week, and both are on buy signals now.
Volatility has been quite interesting during recent market action, as one might expect. The CBOE Volatility Indices exploded to the upside, with $VIX touching 23 last Friday. When $VIX collapsed this week, that generated two separate buy signals.
In summary, our indicators have turned bullish, and we have followed suit. Once the last put-call ratios roll over to buy signals, all of our indicators will be positive. But unless $SPX can move to new all-time highs, the bullishness will be short-lived.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.
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