Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/22/16

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks continue to plow ahead to new all-time highs on the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX). This has created some overbought conditions, but as of this time, there are no sell signals in place.

$SPX has support at the old breakout level of 2120-2135, so any correction should hold at that level. On the upside, we have targets of 2198 and 2226.

Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on buy signals. They are trending lower and beginning to reach the lower regions of their respective charts.

Breadth remains relative strong, and both breadth oscillators remain on buy signals as well, albeit in an overbought state.

Volatility indices have continued to drift lower as the rally has persisted. $VIX has gone through the bottom of the 13-17 range, which had contained it for much of the past several months. So this is another overbought condition. However, just because $VIX is below 12 does not mean that the stock market will sell off.

In summary, the indicators remain on buy signals, and so we expect $SPX to add to its gains over the short term. Overbought conditions and negative divergences may eventually spell some trouble for the market, but those things are not sell signals. They are only supportive of sell signals when and if the indicators roll over to sell signals. So, we will remain bullish until actual sell signals appear.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.