Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/30/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX), has gained 220 points in a month (since the September 28th lows).  After such a strong advance in so short of a time, one would have to say that the market is overbought.  Even so, actual sell signals have been hard to come by.

The $SPX chart itself remains bullish in that it is in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, and the 20-day moving average is rising.

Equity-only put-call ratios continue to decline from the extreme highs that they made almost a month ago.  Thus, they remain on buy signals.

Market breadth has become the weakest of the current indicators. Breadth has generally been a problem for the broad stock market since the summer of 2014, and it still is a problem, to a certain extent. The breadth oscillators have just given another sell signal.

Volatility indices and derivatives continue to decline and that is bullish for stocks.  At the current low levels, it is sufficient for the bullish case that they merely move sideways.

In summary, there are few operative sell signals at this time, so despite the fact that $SPX has risen 220 points in a month, we remain bullish.  We will not take short positions until confirming sell signals are registered.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.