The Post-September Expiration Seasonal Trade

By Lawrence G. McMillan

There are several seasonal trades that we use in the fall of the year – primarily the “October seasonal,” the “Post-Thanksgiving Trade.” and the “Heating Oil – Unleaded Gas Seasonal.” There are some others, too, that we don’t usually trade, such as the “January Effect” (which actually occurs in December), the “Santa Claus Rally,” and other trades surrounding Thanksgiving. As noted, we don’t usually trade the latter three specifically, but we have incorporated them into first set of systems that we do trade. In last week’s Hotline, we introduced a trade based on another system: the “market” declines the week after “regular” September options and futures expiration. In this article, we’ll present the background behind that system, and show the statistics that it has generated over the past 25 years. It seems to be working so far this year...

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