Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8/14/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

It seems that no matter what happens -- technically, fundamentally, or volatility-wise -- $SPX remains trapped in its now-six-month-long trading range. Hence the $SPX chart is neutral.

All of the major put-call ratios gave buy signals recently. But now those are beginning to deteriorate, as the market hasn't responded. The standard equity-only put-call ratio (Figure 2) has curled higher in the last few days, but the computer program that we use to analyze these charts still rates it as a "buy" (presumably, large numbers are coming off the 21-day moving average). Meanwhile, the weighted equity-only put-call ratio (Figure 3) has rolled over to a confirmed sell signal.

Breadth has been quite negative, with declines surpassing advances on five of the last six days. As a result, the breadth oscillators have rolled back to sell signals.

Volatility movements have remained generally positive. On the big reversal day on Wednesday, $VIX spiked up to 16.28 and then fell back sharply. That's a bullish reversal.

In summary, the outlook for $SPX is neutral.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.