Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/23/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market continues to be volatile, with $SPX bounding from support at 1990 to resistance at 2065 swiftly in the past four days. Outside of that range, there is further support at 1975 (the October lows) and resistance at 2090 (the all-time highs). As a result, the $SPX chart remains neutral at this time.

Equity-only put-call ratios turned bullish in early January, and the standard ratio remains on a buy signal (barely) at this time (Figure 2), even though the 21-day moving average has curled upward over the past few days. On the other hand, the weighted put-call ratio is rolling over to a sell signal.

Market breadth has been erratic, but both of the breadth indicators that we follow are on buy signals now.

Volatility indices have generally been declining, which is bullish. There was a rising trend in $VIX (see Figure 4), but Thursday's action broke that downtrend line.

In summary, the market is volatile within a trading range. This is a neutral outlook, until $SPX can break out in one direction or the other.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.