Weekly Stock Market Commentary 11/14/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

It has been a great stock market rally, with $SPX advancing 200 points in about a month.  But the advance is slowing, and sell signals are setting up (although none has actually been confirmed yet).

$SPX has minor support at 2030 and also below there, at 2000.

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained solidly on buy signals for nearly a month.  They are dropping rapidly on their charts, and it's bullish for stocks as long as they continue to decline.

Market breadth has not been particularly strong, but it's been strong enough to keep the breadth oscillators on buy signals. However, they are weakening, and one more day of negative breadth will generate sell signals.

Volatility indices have generally remained subdued. $VIX traded below 13 this past week.  While that's an overbought condition of sorts, it's not dangerous for stocks unless $VIX begins to trend higher.     

In summary, the intermediate-term indicators are bullish for now, but overbought conditions look like they're going to produce some sell signals soon.

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