Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/18/2026

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market bounced back from its brief correction in early June, but $SPX has not yet recovered to new all-time highs. As a result, the $SPX chart itself is in a neutral state right now bound by resistance at 7600 (the all-time highs) and support at 7257 (last week's lows), with further support in the 7050-7175 range from late April. There was a gap on the $SPX chart that was filled yesterday, so it is no longer relevant.

Many of our indicators are taking on a more positive tone, but not the equity-only put-call ratios which continue to rise. That is a bearish signal for the stock market when these ratios are trending higher. It seems that traders are buying stocks, but also buying puts for protection. The increase in put volume pushes these ratios higher.

Breadth continues to be a split: that is, NYSE breadth has been stronger than "stocks only" breadth. As a result, the NYSE breadth oscillator has remained on a buy signal throughout June, and it is still on that buy signal. "Stocks only" breadth only joined in this week, when it finally issued a buy signal of its own.

$VIX tried to retreat and got down to 16 this week. That was enough to generate a new trend of $VIX buy signal for the stock market. As long as $VIX is trending lower, that is positive for stocks. In addition, the "spike peak" buy signal from $VIX is still in effect as well.

In summary, we have seen an improvement in our indicators with three or four new confirmed buy signals in the last seven trading days. The $SPX chart itself, though, will only rejoin the bullish camp if $SPX can break out to new all-time highs and hold that ground.

Regardless, we will trade confirmed signals as they occur, and we will continue to roll deeply in-the-money calls up to higher strikes.