Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/1/2026

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The major indices are all enjoying a booming bull move to new all- time highs $SPX, $NDX, and $RUT (while the Dow is closing in on its highs as well). This display of strength has occurred in the face of potential geopolitical worries, which indicates that "the market" isn't too concerned with those. $SPX has strong support at 7000 -- the previous all-time highs -- as well as minor support at 7125 and 7050.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain solidly bullish in their outlook for stocks. They continue to drop steadily and sharply. As long as they are declining, that is positive for the market.

Breadth has been teetering on the verge of a sell signal, but has not generated a confirmed sell signal yet. It was within one day of confirming a sell signal, but a very strong breadth day on April 30th prevented that.

So far, $VIX has remained a bit elevated as traders show a modest amount of concern over Iran and other potential problems. Normally, with $SPX at new all-time highs, we'd expect to see $VIX near 14 or 15 (or lower). But $VIX has been stubbornly hanging around its 200-day Moving Average (currently just above 18) or even higher at times. That finally seems to be slipping away slowly, as $VIX has now closed below 17 for the first time since early February. A declining $VIX is bullish for stocks.

In summary, the $SPX chart is quite bullish with the Index making new all-time highs. That is the most important indicator. Currently, we have no confirmed sell signals. Continue to roll deeply in-the-money calls up to higher strikes.