Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/11/13

By Lawrence G. McMillan

For the first time in a while, some sell signals are beginning to creep into our indicators, and the broad stock market is selling off. So far, the damage has been controlled, but Thursday's sharply down opening shows that there is the potential for some heavy selling if there is perceived danger. $SPX has support at 1950 and 1925, and even at 1900 below that.

Equity-only put-call ratios are in agreement, and they are both on sell signals.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) had been very strong when $SPX was breaking out to new highs. But the recent selling has been accompanied by negative breadth, so both breadth indicators are now on sell signals.

Volatility indices ($VXST, $VIX, and $VXV) remain subdued, so they have not given bearish signals yet.

In summary, sell signals have arisen in put-call ratios and breadth. But in the bull market phase that started in late 2011, it has been important to observe the trend of volatility and very important to adhere to the trend of $SPX. Both of those are still bullish at this time. So as long as $VIX remains below 13 and $SPX remains above 1925, it's a short-term correction and not a change to an intermediate-term sell signal.

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