Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/3/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The new year started with a thud, as selling pressure that had been building up over the past few days was released.   Even after the selling, the $SPX chart is bullish, as long as it remains above 1810.

Equity-only put-call ratios have rolled over to sell signals, from very low (overbought) levels on their charts.

Market breadth had been quite strong -- until January 2nd.  Breadth was so negative today that the breadth indicators are just barely clinging to buy signals at this time.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) started to move higher on the last two days of 2013.  If $VIX closes above 14.50, I would regard that as being negative for stocks.

In summary, while we realize that the market was overbought coming into the new year, the overall trend will not be bearish unless $SPX starts to violate some support levels.  The first and highest one is 1810.  A drop below there could set off some seriously negative market action, but the bulls have been able to avoid such declines for well over a year now, and they will likely try to do so again.

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