By Lawrence G. McMillan
The fact that $SPX has made new closing and intraday highs is bullish. As for the $SPX chart, there should be support at the old breakout level near 4700, although that has not been tested yet. If $SPX should fall back below there, it would be back in its old trading range, with support at 4500. However, a pullback of that magnitude while not necessarily setting off bear market alarms would remove the current "bullish" status from the $SPX chart.
Both equity-only put-call ratios are on buy signals. The weighted ratio's buy signal is confirmed by our computer analysis programs. The standard ratio's signal is not computer-confirmed, but it is getting very close to that status.
Market breadth expanded tremendously during the big 270- point rally in $SPX (through December 27th), and that pushed both of our breadth oscillators onto buy signals.
$VIX has gotten somewhat more bullish in the last week, too. The "spike peak" buy signal of December 20th is still in place and has done well. $VIX has also traded down below its 200-day moving average, which is somewhat positive.
The seasonally bullish Santa Claus Rally period is doing well so far, with about a 75-point gain in $SPX. It lasts through January 4th, the second trading day of the new year.
In summary, we are holding a "core" bullish long position now that $SPX has broken out once again to new all-time highs. That position will remain in place as long as the $SPX chart is bullish. Individual system signals will be traded around that "core" long position.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.
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