Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/18/13

By Lawrence G. McMillan

After drifting sideways in a state of virtual somnambulation, the stock market finally broke out to the upside Thursday.  Based solely on the chart breakout, everything looks rosy.  However, there are some serious overbought conditions in place, which will eventually have to be dealt with.

As for the $SPX chart itself, the breakout over previous resistance at 1475 means that the 1475 level is now support. Below that, there is still support at at 1450 and 1430.

The standard equity-only put-call ratio is on a sell signal, and has been since early January.  The weighted equity-only ratio isn't in much better shape.  It has been wavering back and forth this week, although techically it is on buy.      Market breadth, which is usually the first indicator to roll over to a sell signal, has not wavered from its bullish stance all year long.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) remain at extremely low levels, below 14.  On several days recently, including Thursday, $VIX has made marginal new post-2007 lows.  That is, it has traded at the lowest levels since July of 2007.  On the surface, this appears to be an extremely overbought situation for the broad market.

In summary, the bulls have ground out a victory -- or conversely, the bears have been reduced to powder. As long as the 1450-1475 support level remains in place, it's a bullish market.

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