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Weekly Commentary 9/9/2011

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The chart of $SPX has developed a very interesting characteristic: there is a rising channel -- called a "pennant"  on the chart.  A breakdown below the lower boundary of the channel creates a very negative technical formation.      

Equity-only put-call ratios, meanwhile, are quite bullish.  They rolled over to buy signals last week and continue to decline.      

Still volatile and dangerous

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market has been swinging back and forth in wide ranges, moving from deeply oversold to deeply overbought and back again with extreme moves.

The bulls have regained the upper hand...for now

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Buyers finally emerged yesterday afternoon and they have continued into today.  In my mind, the complete impetus for this rally was the severe oversold condition that had emerged over the previous three days of heavy selling.  Today’s rally is on track to being a “90% up day” – certainly in terms of “stocks only” data and potentially in terms of NYSE-based data as well.  At the current time, on the NYSE, advancing volume is 12-to-1 over declining volume.

Positive Book Review at Seeking Alpha

Larry's new book, Options For Volatile Markets, received a positive review by Brenda Jubin at Seeking Alpha.  Jubin Writes:

Weekly Commentary 9/2/2011

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Technical indicators have turned more bullish in the past week, so the current rally probably has more room to run.  The chart of $SPX has taken on a slightly more bullish tone. This week $SPX overcame resistance at 1200-1210, although it has now fallen back below that level.  

There is also resistance at 1230 -- the intraday high of both the last two trading days.      

More buy signals in place: Look for short-term correction before the next advance

By Lawrence G. McMillan

MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — After Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech last Friday, the market sold off rather sharply. But once that selling got out of the way, a strong bullish move took place, carrying the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher by more than 70 points in just over one full trading day.

Odds are due for a short-term pullback

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market responded to a number of factors on Monday to put together one of the strongest days of the year.  Perhaps too strong (for example, advancing volume on the NYSE was 34 times that of declining volume!).  It was yet another "90% up day" and now there have been three such days without an  intervening "90% down day."  Odds are due for a short-term pullback.  However, once that gets out of the way, we would expect higher prices in line with the improving technical indicators that we mentioned yesterday.

Weekly Commentary 8/26/11

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has established 1120 as a support area, but it remains negative in that it is trending downward.

Equity-only put-call ratios are still rising on their charts, meaning they are still on sell signals. However, the heights they have reached means that these indicators are extremely oversold.

Market breadth has been very one-sided, as massive numbers of traders are either bullish or bearish at the same time, it seems. Breadth conditions are currently neutral.

Safe Approaches To Volatility Skew Trading

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Vertical skews appear in option prices during times of panic and in futures prices in terms of euphoria.  Since we have been experiencing a lot of both lately, we have gotten some requests from traders asking how to play these skewed situations without using naked options.  This is a subject that we have covered in the past, but it might be a good time to review it, considering current market conditions.  

Oversold rally?

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The rally that was underway a week ago ended abruptly, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index traded back down to its lows at 1,120. After a few days of testing that area, during which the index closed near that 1,120 level each day, the market has rallied. This rally was initially supported by extremely oversold conditions, but has begun to garner some other buy signals as well.

Let’s review the indicators.


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