$SPX In Election Years
We have $SPX data going back to 1950, so it wasn’t too difficult to construct the following Table, which shows the performance of the market (as measured by $SPX) each election year, from the last trading day in July through the day prior to Election Day. It should be noted that the stock market was closed on Election Day until 1984 – a rare bit of trivia probably not known by most younger traders.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, October 5th, 2020.
There are a lot of cross-current buffeting this market currently, and another major one has been added: President Trump has tested positive for the corona virus. This raises all sorts of uncertainty about governance (will the Vice President have to take over?) and the election. There is no way to know how this is going to play out. All we do know is that the S&P futures reacted only mildly dropping about 50 points on the news. So, the following commentary is based on the technical factors that we do know.
There are currently a number of factors affecting the CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), most notably the upcoming Presidential Election and the fears of market volatility that a contested election might foist upon the stock market. But there is another element that is affecting $VIX, and it is not getting much press. Specifically, it is the after-effect of an initial bear market “shock” on $VIX.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, September 28th, 2020.
The market is in a stair-step pattern lower. This is a relatively orderly decline, compared to the "smashes," if not "crashes," of Feb 2018, Oct 2018, Dec 2018 and March 2020. But the bears are in charge now that the 3280 level has been broken.
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A significant battle has developed between the bulls and the bears. There is resistnace at 2425 and support at 3310-3330. A closing price breakout from that range should be significant, especially on a close below 3280. Unless there is such a breakdown, the $SPX chart can still be considered to be bullish.
Given the current market climate and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presedential election, it makes sense to consider hedging your portfolio. The following free articles from our archives can help you learn more about portfolio protection with options.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, September 14th, 2020.
