By Lawrence G. McMillan
After the nasty decline early last week, the stock market pulled itself together and rallied. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index bounced off the general area surrounding 1,220, and thus the selling that had occurred on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 — severe as it was — merely looked like a quick retest of the 1,220 breakout level (see chart below). As the market then rallied back towards the 200-day moving average, the technical indicators began to strengthen to the point where all were on intermediate-term buy signals entering today.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Yesterday was a strong day, backed by technical factors across the board. But forget about it, because tonight the market is getting absolutely crushed. S&P futures we down as much as 32 points, and are down about 26 right now. The problem? Italian interest rates are rising dramatically – particularly noticeable, apparently, on the 10-year notes. The media is saying that the Italian bonds yields are a "crisis levels," whatever that means.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Velocity. That’s a term more commonly found in physics or aeronautical engineering or something like that, but stock market participants are becoming all too familiar with the word, even if they have no idea what v = Δx/Δt means. Volatility is a measure of the size of market movements, but velocity is just the raw directional speed with which they occur. After observing the market this week, I am more inclined to call what we are seeing as velocity, and not volatility.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
When the dust has settled, this looks like little more than a pullback from a slightly overbought condition to test the breakout level (at 1220). To sum up the $SPX chart: there is still support at 1220, and as long as that holds, it's a bullish chart.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on buy signals all week, despite the heavy selling earlier in the week.
Also, the breadth oscillators are back on buy signals once again.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Monday and Tuesday had all the earmarks of panic selling, but it has shaken the confidence that had been gathered throughout the strong October rally.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Yesterday had all the earmarks of panic selling, but it has shaken the confidence that had been gathered throughout the strong October rally. Once again, it seems that the majority of the major players are still acting in a like manner daily, so that these wilder-than-usual swings take place. $SPX sliced all the way down through the supposed support at 1220-1230, and traded as low as 1215.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Once again, it appears the October has become the “bear killer.” Yes, volatility is still high and put volume is still heavy, so there are clearly worries out there. But it’s normal for there to be plenty of worries at the beginning of a new bullish phase. In this article, we’re going to look at some other similar October bottoms in the past to see how the market unfolded at those times.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index, finally broke out of the tight 1190-1220 range this week — to the upside. Since then there have been two attempts to pull back, but they have met support near 1220, and so that is now a confirmed support area.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market remains volatile within an ever-narrowing range. For ten days now, $SPX has traded within a range of 1190 to 1230. Clearly a breakout of that range should be significant.
Equity-only put-call ratios are a bit mixed. The weighted ratio rolled over to a buy signal about two weeks ago, but the standard ratio has continued to climb -- thereby remaining on a sell signal.
Breadth indicators continue to remain on buy signals, and they have reached varying degrees of overbought.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, reached a very important point: the top of the trading range, near 1,220-1,230. The trip to get to this point has been an interesting one.
