On the surface, everything appears fine: $SPX made a new closing all-time high twice this week once after a swift upward reversal off of support near 4370. However, it has not made a new intraday all-time high since July 29th, so in reality it is trapped in a very tight trading range between 4370 and 4430 (the all-time highs) A breakout of this range in either direction should give the Index some short-term momentum.
Despite deteriorating internals in the market, $SPX plowed ahead to register a new all-time high on 13 of 14 consecutive trading days. That streak was interrupted yesterday.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, June 14th, 2021.
Leadership once again is in the $SPX Index, although the NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) are strong as well. Since the $SPX chart is our primary indicator, we retain a "core" bullish position as long as $SPX holds above support: 4260 (the early June highs), 4165, and 4060 the latter two being the twice-tested lows of June and May, respectively.
When $SPX broke out to new all-time highs in early June, it seemed labored, and that breakout quickly faded. But now, in late June and early July, $SPX has moved to new all-time highs with more authority -- having closed at a new all-time high for the sixth trading day in a row.
When NASDAQ leads the way, the market tends to respond strongly especially in the tech-dominated market of the last 15 months. That's what's happening low: both the NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) broke out to new all-time highs this week, after having lagged behind in May. Led by this strong move in NASDAQ, $SPX has once again closed at a new all-time high.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, August 10th, 2020.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, August 3rd, 2020.
Now that the Fed meeting is over, and they didn't raise rates (as we have been predicting), what do we really know? Stocks rallied strongly heading into the announcement, and then there was heavy buying right after the announcement. But the party on Thursday didn't end well, with sell programs emerging that knocked $SPX back down and held $VIX up.
Stocks continue to remain in bearish trends. There have been some sharp rallies, but none of them has even reached the now-swiftly-declining 20-day moving average. There is heavy resistance at 1990, with support at 1900 and 1860. Below that, the next target would be 1820.
Put-call ratios have reached extremely high (oversold) levels. The standard equity-only ratio has given a buy signal (Figure 2) But the weighted ratio has not (Figure 3).
