Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 11/28/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market sold off fairy heavily into the 6500-6550 support zone for $SPX on November 14, but then it rallied strongly off of that support area. That support has been tested several times and continues to get an A+ on the test. But overhead, there is a myriad of resistance, so for now $SPX remains in a trading range.

The index has rallied back to and slightly exceeded its declining 20-day moving average, near 6750. Above that, however, there is a downtrend line at about 6850 and then the all-time highs, at 6900.

Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to march higher, though, as traders have been steadily buying puts probably more as a protective measure than a bearish speculation. Regardless, as long as these put-call ratios are rising, that is bearish for the stock market.

On a more positive note, breadth has improved considerably with the strong rally this week. As a result, both breadth oscillators are now on buy signals, and those buy signals arose out of deeply oversold conditions which normally means these oscillator buy signals will be strong ones.

$VIX has dropped sharply from its peak of nearly 29 on Thursday, November 20. As a result, there is a new $VIX "spike peak" buy signal in place, as of November 21st.

We are seeing both buy and sell signals emerge, which is commonplace when $SPX is in a trading range. We will still trade these signals, for each has its own targets and stops. Moreover, we are entering into a seasonally bullish time period for stocks, so that may be enough to tilt things in favor of the bulls.