Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/28/2024

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks have traded in a tight range for several days. While there's some divergence between $SPX and the broader market, the trend remains upward with $SPX hitting new highs. Support levels are at 5400, 5350, 5260, and possibly 5450.

Equity-only put-call ratios are moving sideways near the lows of their charts. This is an overbought condition but not a sell signal. These ratios need to rise sharply to confirm a sell signal.

Breadth has been mixed but sufficient to keep the breadth oscillators on buy signals, despite some negative divergence. Cumulative Volume Breadth (CVB) may reach a new high, potentially removing this divergence.

$VIX remains low, supporting a bullish trend unless it rises above its 200-day Moving Average of 14.50. The volatility derivatives construct remains bullish for stocks.

We maintain a core bullish position aligned with the $SPX chart's bullishness, trading around confirmed signals. Despite several overbought conditions, "overbought does not mean sell."