The Seasonality Of $VIX - 2021 Update (Preview)

By Lawrence G. McMillan

We occasionally publish the composite chart of $VIX dating back to near its inception. For these purposes, we use the original $VIX – $VXO – since it has the longest price history. That history is shown in the chart on the below. It has generally been the case that $VIX rises early in the year, peaks in the spring, declines into the late summer, and then begins a rapid acceleration in October, before finally tailing off towards the end of the year.

2020 followed that script to a certain extent. Obviously, the huge blow-up in $VIX in March 2020 distorted this composite chart upward, even though it is only one year out of the 32 years’ worth of data in this chart. Typically, April is a month of rapidly declining $VIX, and we may be seeing the start of a similar move here in 2021, as $VIX broke down sharply on Thursday...

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