By Lawrence G. McMillan
On Monday of this week $SPX was near its lows at 3pm. But from there, there has been massive buying all week. However, the $SPX chart is still bearish, because there are lower highs and lower lows on its chart. Oversold rallies typically carry from their lows up to and slightly above the declining 20-day moving average. That's exactly what this rally has done so far (the 20-day MA is just below 2830).
There is clearly support at 2730 now, and that's in the same general area as the 2720 support from early March. As for resistance, the first remaining resistance level is 2900. Above there, of course, is the massive double top at 2940-2950.
The equity-only put-call ratios have generated new buy signals, according to computer analysis of their charts.
Market breadth has seen some cross-currents, but both breadth oscillators are on buy signals at this time.
Volatility remains at very low levels, and thus is generally bullish for stocks. Recently, it seemed that $VIX might be developing a long-term uptrend, but that did not materialize.
In summary, there are mixed signals. The new buy signals from put-call ratios and breadth are somewhat at odds with a still-bearish $SPX chart. Unless $SPX can close above 2900, the bears still have a chance.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.
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