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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/31/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks broke down through 2800 this week, and that had been a major support area. The $SPX chart is negative in that it is trending lower, now with lower highs and lower lows. There is only minor support below here, essentially at 2660-2680.

Both equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals, as they have been since the early part of May. Those sell signals came from very overbought conditions (low on their charts), and those are usually the strongest ones. The bearish market action since then once again affirms that statement.

Both breadth oscillators are on sell signals. They are already getting oversold, but that doesn't mean "buy."

Now, let's discuss volatility. In general, $VIX has lagged. It is grudgingly working higher today. An uptrend is beginning on the $VIX chart, though, and that is negative for stocks.

In summary, the $SPX chart is bearish and that's all you really need to know. Maintain a "core" bearish position. There are plenty of oversold conditions setting up, but don't buy because of those oversold conditions; wait for confirmed buy signals because an oversold market can decline a lot farther than one might expect (see what happened last December for an example).

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.

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