By Lawrence G. McMillan
The following table is a summary of the results, by strategy, showing the number of positions recommended in that category; the number of wins and losses, the win percentage rate, the total profit or loss in that category, and the average return at annual rate (the average return, annualized using the average holding period).
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
2018 Results |
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Anlzd ROI |
Tot Profit |
Positions |
Wins |
Losses |
% Wins |
|
Hedged Fut |
0.79% |
$846 |
35 |
19 |
16 |
54.3% |
|
naked puts |
40.4 |
$2,209 |
18 |
16 |
2 |
88.9 |
|
earnings |
341.96 |
$8210 |
36 |
22 |
14 |
61.1 |
|
Hedged Eq |
151.8 |
$10,419 |
54 |
38 |
16 |
70.4 |
|
Hedged Idx |
-4.04 |
-$4,392 |
36 |
19 |
17 |
52.8 |
|
Intmkt |
1294.73 |
$23,246 |
9 |
5 |
4 |
55.6 |
|
ALL HEDGED |
17.17 |
$30,119 |
134 |
81 |
53 |
60.4 |
|
biotech |
-1173.25 |
-$5,647 |
7 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
|
non-SPY |
25.78 |
$250 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
20 |
|
SPY etc. |
456.63 |
$17,419 |
36 |
17 |
19 |
47.2 |
|
Spec Non P-C |
232.38 |
$12,022 |
48 |
18 |
30 |
37.5 |
|
pc: fut |
-486.48 |
-$10,336 |
15 |
1 |
14 |
6.7 |
|
pc: indx |
-109.77 |
-$1,046 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
33.3 |
|
pc: stocks |
20.9 |
$2,051 |
44 |
15 |
29 |
34.1 |
|
Spec P-C |
-72.91 |
-$9,331 |
65 |
18 |
47 |
27.7 |
|
ALL SPEC |
15.18 |
$2,691 |
113 |
36 |
77 |
31.9 |
|
ALL |
15.06% |
$32,810 |
247 |
117 |
130 |
47.4% |
Overall, there was a profit for 2018, over 247 total recommendations. The average return, at annual rate, was 15.1% (first number in the bottom line of the above table). All hedged positions (“ALL HEDGED”) delivered a strong return, while all speculative (“ALL SPEC”) returned a small profit...
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