By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market has finally broken a support level, in terms of the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX). When $SPX traded below 2350 on Tuesday, it led to a fairly severe down day. This turns the short-term picture negative. The next support level is at 2300.
Equity-only put-call ratios are quite bearish. They will remain bearish as long as they continue to trend higher.
Currently, both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. It is somewhat ironic that breadth was a laggard when the market was on its way up, but now seems to be stronger than the market on the way down.
$VIX has remained bullish -- barely. As you know, we have been following two support lines on $SPX and two resistance lines on $VIX, figuring that they would more or less be violated simultaneously. Well, think again. We are still waiting for $VIX to break out over 13.50.
In summary, the first break in what has been a terrific run for the bulls has occurred. But it is not serious -- yet. A $VIX close above 13.50, say, would be another feather in the bears' cap. Beyond that, if $SPX were to fall below 2300 and $VIX were to climb above its next resistance level (at 15), a truly intermediate-term bearish outlook would be justified.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.
© 2023 The Option Strategist | McMillan Analysis Corporation