By Lawrence G. McMillan
First and foremost, it must be noted that the chart of $SPX is still in an uptrend. The 20-day moving average is rising, and no major trend lines have been broken. $SPX has rallied so hard and so fast since the election that it is quite a ways above support, which is 2210 and 2190. As long as that support holds, the chart of $SPX will arguably still be in an uptrend.
Having said that, sell signals are beginning to appear. One is the "modified Bollinger Band" sell signal, marked on the chart in Figure 1. Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to decline while the market has rallied. The weighted ratio (Figure 3) however is rolling over to a sell signal, according to our computer analysis programs. The standard ratio remains on a buy signal.
Market breadth has deteriorated and both breadth oscillators are now on sell signals.
The one area that is showing no concern is volatility. Not only have the volatility indices not risen much at all, but they were at their lows for the year just a day or two ago. As long as $VIX remains at these low levels, stocks can continue to rise.
Finally, let's talk about seasonality for a minute. The post- Thanksgiving seasonal period is over, and it went out with a whimper. We didn't even get the "obligatory" rally the last week into Christmas. Now another traditionally seasonal period takes over: the "Santa Claus Rally" period. If that fails, too, it will point to a very weak January.
In summary, some warning signs and sell signals are appearing. But unless $SPX breaks support, these are likely to produce only a shallow correction.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.
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