Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/14/2016

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This week, $SPX finally tried to break down.  But support held at or near 2120, reinforcing that as a major support area.  So that remains a key level the level at which the $SPX chart would turn bearish, if broken.

Equity-only put-call ratios are not buying into the bearish argument just yet.  They are both moving lower on their charts, which maintains their buy signals.

Market breadth has been relatively negative, and both breadth oscillators remain on sell signals.  Frankly, I'm surprised that breadth wasn't worse yesterday, when the 2120 level was first tested.

$VIX moved higher, of course, as the market broke down, but its advance has not been spectacular.  The blue lines on the chart in Figure 4 denote the uptrend(s) in $VIX.  When volatility is rising, that is bearish for stocks.

In summary, we have been waiting for a long time for $SPX to break out and to confirm the signals issued by our indicators.  After some severe muddling around in the last month, the indicators have fallen in to a state of boredom, and now it is $SPX that might be leading the way, rather than following.  That is fine, for it is the most important indicator, anyway.  

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.