Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/9/16

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX had remained in a trading range for nearly two months, but now it has broken support at 2160 and that is significant.

The only negative indicators that we had as of yesterday were the equity-only put-call ratios, but the others will join in today. As you can see from Figures 2 and 3, the put-call ratios have been edging higher since making their lows in mid-August. That puts them on sell signals.

The breadth oscillators remain on buy signals, in modestly overbought territory. However, it would only take one or two days of negative breadth to throw them back onto sell signals. That is happening today, so they will roll over to sell signals.

Volatility indices have remained at low levels. If $VIX does close above 14, that would still be a sign to take bearish positions, though. It appears that will happen today.

In summary, if $SPX violates support at 2160 and/or if $VIX begins to trend higher with a breakout above 14, then we would change to a bearish stance. That has happened today.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.