Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8/19/16

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks continue to trade in a tight, sideways range. This is a situation which will eventually lead to a breakout. Most analysts are bearish because of the low volatility and because of the fact that $SPX is near or at all-time highs. But the important part of that sentence is "Most analysts are bearish." Forget the reasons. If they are mostly bearish, the market is unlikely to accommodate them.

For now, the $SPX chart remains bullish. It is trending higher (blue line in Figure 1), and the 20-day moving average is rising. There is support in the 2120-2135 range. Equity-only put-call ratios have stopped declining. For the record, the computer programs that we use to analyze these charts, say that both are on a "buy" now.

Market breadth has been staying relatively positive, although not as strongly positive as it was a month ago. Both breadth oscillators have flirted with sell signals in the past two weeks, but at the current moment, both are on buy signals.

Volatility indices have continued to bounce around at low levels, and as long as that is the case, it is not a problem for stocks.

In summary, everyone seems concerned with predicting a top. The slow, sideways action in $SPX, coupled with a number of overbought conditions and a low $VIX have people worried. But we have no actual sell signals in place right now. We are not in the business of going against our indicators. They will turn bearish quickly if trouble develops. So right now, we remain short-term bullish, looking for $SPX to fulfill upside targets above 2200.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.