Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/20/16

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The chart of $SPX (Figure 1) shows a couple of things. First, the Index is in a downtrend. It has declined more than 80 points from the mid-April highs, at 2110. But the other fact that we can see from the chart is that $SPX still hasn't been able to close below 2040.

As a result, the two red lines make a triangle on the chart. Usually, a breakout from a formation like this is strong, but it can come in either direction.

Equity-only put-call ratios are solidly on sell signals, as both continue to rise daily.

Market breadth has been weak as well, so both breadth oscillators remain on sell signals.

Volatility indices and derivatives have remained bullish, albeit barely so, as $VIX continues to close within the 13-17 range.

In summary, the $SPX chart is somewhat bearish (the downtrend is bearish, but not the failure to break support at 2040), the put-call ratios and breadth are bearish, but the volatility complex is not. This is a mixed picture, awaiting a breakout on the $SPX chart.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.