Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/4/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The $SPX chart now has heavy resistance in the 2080-2100 area, where it spent most of the previous two weeks. The support at 2020 (November lows) is still in place as well, and will likely be tested in the coming days.

Both equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals, and they are now beginning to race higher on their charts.

Market breadth made a valiant attempt to get back on track last week. However, that strength in breadth was fleeting, and now both breadth oscillators have rolled over to sell signals.

Volatility indices bounced back and forth this week, but yesterday $VIX closed above 17, which puts it in an uptrend (in my opinion). That is bearish for stocks. As long as $VIX is trending higher, stocks will find it difficult to rally.

In summary, the majority of indicators is negative, and the direction of the market is lower over the short term. We do expect the positive seasonality to kick in soon. We will look to enter on the long side when buy signals occur, but none have been confirmed to date. We will not anticipate those buy signals by buying early.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.