Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/12/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Despite some indications this week that the market might break down, it did not do so. In fact, the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) held near the previous support level of 2070, thereby strengthening that level as market support. On the upside, there is resistance at the old highs of 2135, so $SPX remains locked in the 2070-2135 trading range.

Equity-only put-call ratios are split in their signals at the current time. The standard ratio is declining, and is thus on a buy signal. Conversely, the weighted ratio has been rising, and is thus on a sell signal.

While breadth wasn't great on this week's rally, the cumulative effect of two positive days of breadth did roll both breadth oscillators over to buy signals.

Volatility indices and derivatives made some upside probes this week, but not enough to generate sell signals. Hence $VIX remains a bullish indicator.

In summary, the market remains mired in its trading range. Even if it breaks out, it would only be a meaningful breakout if it is confirmed by similar readings from the other indicators. Until that happens, we retain a neutral outlook for the broad stock market.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.