Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/8/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market weakened considerably this week, and many of the indicators are now following suit with sell signals. But $SPX price action continues to frustrate both bulls and bears, as it refuses to trend higher or lower.

So now for $SPX, there is support at 2067 - 2072 (the April and May lows), with resistance above at 2125 (the all-time highs). Equity-only put-call ratios have deteriorated badly this week. Both ratios have rolled over to sell signals.

Market breadth was the first to weaken, generating sell signals just over a week ago. They remain in place now.

Volatility has been the bullish stalwart in this market for some time. But even that is beginning to weaken. $VIX closed above 15 and above its 20-day moving average this week. Thus, it appears than an uptrend is beginning in $VIX, and when volatility is trending higher, that is bearish for stocks.

In summary, one would think that with the deterioration of many of the technical indicators, $SPX is destined to break down. But we have seen similar situations at other times in the last 3 or 4 years, and $SPX has not broken down. So, until it actually happens, there remains some doubt.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.