Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/29/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX remains stalled just below the all-time highs, which are at 2135. The support at 2070 (the lows of March and April) remains in place.

Equity-only put-call ratios are technically still on sell signals. But as you can see from Figures 2 and 3, they have been drifting sideways for a couple of weeks.

Market breadth oscillators gave sell signals prior to Tuesday's market decline. They remain on those sell signals, despite the broad market's attempt to recover.

Volatility indices and derivatives are still quite bullish. Yes, they spiked higher Tuesday, but that didn't really change anything. We have seen these brief upward excursions by $VIX a few times in the last two months, and none have meant anything as far as establishing an uptrend for volatility.

In summary, $SPX is nearing old highs again, but there hasn't been any improvement in the other technical indicators: put-call ratios are on sell signals (or are sideways, at best), breadth is poor, and only volatility is bullish -- albeit overbought. That isn't the setup for a strong move into all-time new high territory.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.