Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/24/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Both bulls and bears are frustrated by recent action. Most recently, $SPX has made repeated attempts to challenge the all-time highs, but it has not yet been able to break out.  There is resistance in the 2110- 2120 area that has contained all advances.

In any case, the $SPX chart is still neutral until it breaks out of the triangle in a convincing way.

Equity-only put-call ratios have been bullish since around the first of the month.  But this week, they began to curl upwards -- a move which could lead to a sell signal if it were to persist.  To the naked eye, the weighted chart (Figure 3) definitely looks like it has begun to trend higher.  However, the computer programs that we use to analyze these charts do not see a sell signal forming.

So, officially these two ratios are still on buy signals.

Stronger breadth in the last couple of days has rolled the breadth oscillators back over to buy signals, with modest overbought readings.

Volatility indices and derivatives continue to paint a bullish, but overbought, picture for stocks. $VIX is below 12.50 now, and that is certainly an overbought condition.  However, the market can advance while overbought conditions exist.

In summary, the indicators are marginally bullish, but $SPX has not broken out to the upside yet.  At this point, it seems inevitable that it will, but we want to confirm it before buying.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.