Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/10/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market has traded in an ever-narrowing range for over a month now. The most recent range has been bounded by 2090 on the upside and 2050 on the downside. But now $SPX is trying to break through 2090. Even if that is accomplished, there is still considerable overhead resistance at 2110-2120 (the all-time highs).

Most of the other indicators have taken on a more positive slant in the last week or so. As a prime example, the equity-only put-call ratios have turned bullish.

Market breadth has been strong enough in the last week to cancel out the previous breadth oscillator sell signals, and thus return them to modestly overbought buy signals.

$VIX continues to hover within its own trading range between 13 and 17. Now $VIX is at the very low end of that range. As such, it's somewhat overbought, but as long as $VIX continues to move sideways or decline, stocks can rally.

In summary, until proven differently, $SPX remains in a trading range. Even a breakout over resistance at 2090 won't mean much unless new all-time highs are made. Otherwise, it would just be another failure, as in mid-March.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.